CRED analysis: what Saratoga’s evacuation assessments say about hillside capacity

The City of Saratoga has published more than one evacuation document. On June 3, 2026, Council received (1) the July 2025 Evacuation Route Capacity Assessment and (2) Fehr & Peers’ May 2026 Wildfire Evacuation Time Estimates: Existing and Future Development Projections (Attachment B). Agenda: https://www.saratoga.ca.us/AgendaCenter/ViewFile/ArchivedAgenda/_06032026-1267 (opens in a new tab)

Fehr & Peers’ May 2026 evacuation model estimated that, under existing-condition assumptions (Projection A), 90% of the population in the defined evacuation area would clear within 2 hours 45 minutes and 100% within 5 hours (Table 10, report p.33 / PDF p.40). Open the report PDF from the button above this article. The result depends on the scenario, roadway assumptions, evacuation participation, destination assumptions, and model limitations described in the assessment. The report states an ETE is not a precise prediction of an actual evacuation; it is an estimate of the likely order of magnitude (report p.1 / PDF p.8). These are modeled estimates, not observed times and not a citywide finding.

Adding 725 pending subdivision units inside the modeled evacuation area (Projection B) did not change those 90% / 100% times in Table 12 (report p.34; PDF p.41). Adding citywide and adjacent development (Projection C) lengthened the modeled times to 3 hours 15 minutes (90%) and 6 hours 15 minutes (100%) in Table 14 (report p.35; PDF p.42).

The report’s existing-condition run assumes a 9:00 p.m. evacuation notice, a fully open road network, no major traffic incidents or road closures, and existing lane configurations without contraflow. The report itself characterizes the results as estimates of the likely order of magnitude — not precise predictions.

Separately, the July 2025 staff report on the route-capacity assessment states that Pierce Road and Saratoga Avenue–Big Basin Way would exceed capacity under baseline modeled conditions, causing long delays, potentially over an hour to clear one area. That is a modeled corridor result, not a project-by-project finding. Staff report: https://legistarweb-production.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/attachment/pdf/3443021/Evacuation_Route_Capacity_Assessment_Staff_Report.pdf (opens in a new tab)

CRED is concerned that cumulative development along constrained corridors such as Pierce Road could affect evacuation time and emergency-vehicle access. The 2025 assessment identifies Pierce Road and other routes as being near or over capacity in modeled evacuation conditions; it does not, by itself, establish the project-level effect of every pending development.

Masson Estates, the county Mountain Winery file, and other pending hillside applications sit on those same corridors. Quote the city tables in formal comments.